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wylie
17th September 2001, 21:58
Ive had to explain this a bit to some people over here today....thought I'd share my synapsis with you in case anyone cares... ;)

In case you hadn’t heard, the US stock market fell about 7% at the close of trading. This is reportedly the single biggest fall in history. Here is a VERY simplistic summary (the “gist” of it).

1. Why? The single biggest influence on the market is confidence. No-one is going to put their money into something without a reasonable expectation of it doing well & getting a return (would you??). Take this to a larger scale. Confidence is down in the US at the moment. People simply aren’t spending. They are in a state of shock…..they are scared to travel, future looks bleak and potentially violent…….investors see this and go “eek – cant see me making any money out of this” and bail….(the market is a heartless b***tard)….it doesn’t even have to be true, just appear likely to be the case. This happens on a mass scale, people see the share prices dropping & get out to try & cut losses, everyone else follows suit, the market crashes. You can bet whoever orchestrated the attacks knew this. Amongst other things bin-laden is a very astute businessman. You can bet this was part of his idea.

2. What now? - Looks like a recession. The attacks happened at the worst time for the US economy. It was teetering above recession last week. This will topple it. (again – a planned effect). The Reserve cutting interest rates pre-emptively was a master stroke that avoided even worse damage (why is another story)

3. So what? Well…..recession means many things. First & foremost employment. Job losses start when businesses start to struggle & cant afford to employ people. Consumer spending further decreases (as overall there is less disposable income in the economy)…. investment in the US drops, it gets harder to raise funds for new ventures……all of this means less money in YOUR pocket. World markets actually fell before the opening of the US stock exchange (it usually occurs after), so the effect is global.

Will it improve? – of course...(markets here have picked up some ground already today)...….when?? hell…if I knew that I’d be filthy rich and number one genomer with a 30 gazillihertz farm of palominos!

Simplistic overview only guys – don’t use it for your economics assignment!

X-Calibur
17th September 2001, 22:26
Actually it's their loss our win....

In the last 100 years of stock exchange, everytime the market went down, those who sell made the biggest loss and those who kept ended richer then the former. Patience is above the greatest virtue of the market.

Right now: I'm buying stocks: airline companies and insurance companies, they are going down, they will go up: my win.

Simple as that, never failed me, hell I'm 22 YO, and I have more money under my pillow then my father who is 50, he works I don't , he's single, I'm not. My income was 6,000-8,000 CAD per year, since I'm 13 YO until last year, bought stock and trust funds.... it's there untouched since then, pilling up... let them bail out their money, HELL it's America fer christ sakes, the bloody grand country of the last century, one is a fool to have lost confidence in it's market and economy, were talking of a 300+ millions citizens, that is hell of a market, US will come economicaly stronger out of this, richer and most of all prouder !

No f*cking way I,m bailling out of the US market, I justed increased my positions there fer christ sake, and I can be assured that my move is a good one.

Panicking with money is a bad attitude, so f*cking what does it change if your stock goes down 7% one day, out of 100,000 this is 7,000..... big deal, wait a year or so and you're back at 100,000... next year your at 110,000. LONG TERM man, the only good strategy, if you go for shorter terms, well it's jsut like going to the Casino in Vegas and trying to play the odds..... I'm sticking with my US stock. Period



Whooaaaaaa, it almost seems I'm angry.... :D :D , rest assured I'm not, haven't used the F word so often in a thread before.... sorry peeps..

Warm regards

X

wylie
17th September 2001, 23:42
Yeah steady on mate...you know where the venting room is :D
I am of course talking globally not individually.....there will be winners & losers in this as always...for every person who makes a profit a corresponding person will make a loss...

You are correct in that this is indeed the time to buy... maybe not just yet, but buy low-sell high is a fairly infallible way to make money (if only it were that easy).
Unfortunately until the rest of the market sees confidence return it may be a long wait.

LBaker
17th September 2001, 23:50
I like your style X. I have not played with stocks at all but I opened an online account today. These airlines went down up to 45% today. US government will not let them fail.

wylie
18th September 2001, 00:07
Ansett Airlines went under last thursday.
Air New Zealand is on the verge of collapse.

I would advise caution - seek professional advice....would hate your losses to fund someone elses profit. This is not the time for speculation (as airlines are at the moment - will they go much lower or has the panic stopped??), but planned investments.

viperdog
18th September 2001, 00:36
just a note...

It was the biggest single point loss on record for the DJIA in one day..yes.

It was not,
repeat..not the biggest percentage loss, not even in the top ten (I believe).

The Nasdaq and other exchanges it was a loss day but not even much more than a blip...

bottom line...I think you can expect to see a 30% rise in the market over the next 18 months, however expect the market to trend down for the next 3 months before it turns the corner. I like the comments above....just stay put..trading now in this market is more of a gamble than an investment until we see just how everthing begins to play out..

wylie
18th September 2001, 00:42
Originally posted by viperdog
just a note...

It was the biggest single point loss on record for the DJIA in one day..yes.

It was not,
repeat..not the biggest percentage loss, not even in the top ten (I believe).


Thank you for that....I got my facts muddled.

eldiablo
18th September 2001, 00:56
Originally posted by viperdog
just a note...

It was the biggest single point loss on record for the DJIA in one day..yes.

It was not,
repeat..not the biggest percentage loss, not even in the top ten (I believe).

The Nasdaq and other exchanges it was a loss day but not even much more than a blip...

bottom line...I think you can expect to see a 30% rise in the market over the next 18 months, however expect the market to trend down for the next 3 months before it turns the corner. I like the comments above....just stay put..trading now in this market is more of a gamble than an investment until we see just how everthing begins to play out..

beat me to it. :) the u.s. market dropped about as much as the foreign markets already had. could see this coming for a few days now... shorting on open was a great opportunity. those holding gold should be pretty happy also. :)

Stilgar
18th September 2001, 13:26
I had a friend out at work say he was going to dump all his stock yesterday. (Major oil company, no ties to wtc, part of our retirement bit with the company, He is not retiring for ~10 years.) Made no sense.

LBaker
18th September 2001, 17:10
Originally posted by wylie
Ansett Airlines went under last thursday.
Air New Zealand is on the verge of collapse.

I would advise caution - seek professional advice....would hate your losses to fund someone elses profit. This is not the time for speculation (as airlines are at the moment - will they go much lower or has the panic stopped??), but planned investments.

I'm only talking a few shares ;) I'd have a hard time beleiving we will let those airlines involved in the attack go under.